Throughout the season from now, we will be looking at who we think should be in the playoff right now, and who see at the end of the season. A couple of teams have asserted dominance this year, like Florida State and Auburn. A couple of teams have also been a consensus playoff candidate throughout the year until the crazy Week 6, like Oklahoma and Oregon. We will be discussing why teams should or shouldn't be included, and why. Lets getting going.
Playoff Team #1 Right Now - Florida State
Florida State was the preseason favorite and hasn't lost yet, so by default they should remain at #1. Yes, yes, they barely edged out their competition, but need I remind you they played a solid game in Arlington versus Oklahoma State, a very good team, and still beat Clemson and Vic Beasley without Jameis Winston. They have played bad games versus Citadel and NC State, but that is just trying to get Jameis Winston back in his role. Coach Jimbo Fisher has been here before, done that, but their season is really going to come down to that October 18 showdown versus Notre Dame in Talahassee.
Playoff Team #1 End of Year - Notre Dame
This pick is also a bit by default. We know that Auburn, Ole Miss and Mississippi State will not go undefeated in the SEC West. That eliminates three teams ahead of Notre Dame. Baylor still has games versus Kansas State, TCU and Oklahoma, the latter in Stillwater. Even more, the argument still stands for Baylor's lack of non-conference competition, which could propel Notre Dame past them even if they win out. And finally, if Notre Dame beats Florida State, they're in.
Playoff Team #2 Right Now - Auburn
Auburn is a tricky team. They are the reigning runner-ups, but they play in the SEC West. They are undefeated, but they play in the SEC West. They have a quality non-conference win, but they play in the SEC West. Do you see a common theme here? If, by some miracle, they end up with only one loss, you could easily see them at the #1 spot. Hear this. Currently, they have away games against #3 Ole Miss, #3 Mississippi State, #13 Georgia, and #7 Alabama. That is crazy. They easily have the hardest schedule left among all playoff contenders, but as of now they are undefeated and cruising.
Playoff Team #2 End of Year - Florida State
If you want an in depth report on why Florida State is in read their previous paragraph on how they get in by default, which is a common theme here. They do not have any other ranked opponents left on their schedule save for Notre Dame, which we have them losing to. They could face an undefeated or one-loss Georgia Tech team in the ACC Championship, which they should win. Louisville could be a challenge, but barring an upset, they should be a shoo-in as a one-loss team.
Playoff Team #3 Right Now - Mississippi State
Numbers three and four currently are very similar, teams riding upsets of top teams without a good non-conference team. We give the edge to Mississippi State because they have beaten LSU and Texas A&M. The LSU game was also in Death Valley, which can add to their bill over Ole Miss. Yes, Ole Miss has beaten Alabama, the King of all Kings, but everyone knows two is better than one, and we think Mississippi State gets the nod here.
Playoff Team #3 End of Year - Ole Miss
Currently, Alabama, Ole Miss, Auburn and Mississippi State can all finish 10-2. Saying Ole Miss loses to Auburn, Auburn loses to both Mississippi State and Alabama, and Mississippi State loses to Alabama and Alabama loses to LSU or Texas A&M, then Ole Miss comes away with the tiebreaker. They will likely face a one-loss Missouri or a two-loss Georgia, which won't be an easy win, but a highly plausible win. Ole Miss is looking like last year's Auburn, a two loss team that benefited from a hard schedule, but really, this spot is just reserved for whoever wins the SEC West.
Playoff Team #4 Right Now - Ole Miss
They are the latter of the Mississippi's to be in the top four. They edge Baylor because of the Alabama win versus, well, the Texas win, and edge Notre Dame because they played sloppy against Stanford and that can be arguably their only quality game so far. They also could have the easiest schedule left in the SEC West playing both Mississippi State and Auburn at home. If there is a lock for any SEC West team to make the Playoff, I believe it would be arguably unanimous them.
Playoff Team #4 End of Year - Michigan State
Right now, there are seven teams ranked ahead of MSU. Three of them have been said in this post so far. One of them is Baylor who everyone believes to overrated, rightfully so. The final two are Mississippi State and Alabama, who both play in the SEC West. And Alabama has one loss. And Oregon is better than West Virginia. If MSU wins out, they get in by default. No argument. Well never mind, there is always an argument. Other viable candidates are Oklahoma, Oregon, Alabama, TCU, Arizona, Mississippi State, and pretty much everytime in the FBS except for Michigan. Each team has its own argument, a pretty good one, but Michigan State had the luck of the Irish to lose early in the season and end up playing the Irish.
All in all this has a 2.3419% of working out. Give or take like 50 percentage points. College Football is unpredictable. A team like Georgia Tech could be the only undefeated team left by December 14th, and it could be just an average college football season. Welcome to the College Football Playoff, America.
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