In the wake of the first College Football Playoff Rankings, college football as a whole have a better idea on what the gods of the CFP committee are looking for, and it's not style points (sorry, Ohio State). With three SEC West teams in the top 4 and four in the top six, where the power is isn't a question either. What is the question is what games down the road will have playoff implications in them.
Oregon vs Arizona and Ole Miss vs Alabama. Oregon lost by a touchdown to Arizona at home in a game that was tied until 2:56 left in the 4th quarter. Alabama lost to Ole Miss in Oxford on the same weekend as the Oregon/Arizona game in which Alabama had a seven point lead for much of the game. Arizona, who lost to USC due to a 36-yard missed field goal is ranked 12th in the CFP Top 25, and Oregon is at 5. Ole Miss despite coming off a loss to LSU, are ranked two spots ahead of Alabama at 4. Does this look fair? I'm not arguing for Arizona to be in the top 4, but the head-head matchup versus Oregon should put them in the top 10. Arizona has flaws, yes, with a small point-margin and an easy SOS, but Alabama has had minimal competition as well. Currently their only win over a ranked team was West Virginia in a sloppy game in Atlanta.
Looking ahead, it is hard to see more than one team from arguably the two best conferences (Big 12 and SEC) come out into the playoff. Each conference has five or six teams at the top who are Playoff threats, plus the SEC has a championship game. Let's look at the three biggest match-ups from Week 10 on.
Week 10:
1. #3 Auburn @ #4 Ole Miss
2. #7 TCU @ #20 West Virginia
3. #2 Florida State @ #25 Louisville
This upcoming week, three of the top seven teams are playing on the road versus a ranked team. Auburn definitely has the hardest bill here, playing in Oxford. College Gameday is going to Morgantown, probably due to being sick of Mississippi. After disses on Florida State's remaining schedule, the CFP Committee has given them a boast putting perhaps a solid away win on their resume.
Week 11:
1. #9 Kansas State @ #7 TCU
2. #16 Ohio State @ #8 Michigan State
3. #6 Alabama @ #19 LSU
This was a tough week to rank with so many good match-ups. Exempt are Oregon/Utah, Notre Dame/Arizona State, Texas A&M/Auburn and Oklahoma/Baylor. KSU/TCU and OSU/MSU are games that could perhaps decide the Big 12 and Big 10, respectively. A one-loss champion from either conference would have a legitimate shot to make the playoff, which is much more likely in the Midwest, however. Alabama/LSU is always a good game, and LSU could maybe knock Alabama out of playoff contention in a game at night in Baton Rouge.
Week 12:
1. #1 Mississippi State @ #6 Alabama
2. #3 Auburn @ #11 Georgia
3. #15 Nebraska @ Wisconsin
The first game this week was obvious. Dak Prescott versus Blake Sims, Dan Mullen versus Nick Saban, powerhouse versus powerhouse. Georgia has a relatively easy schedule, for an SEC team, left, with Auburn the only ranked bump in the road. A win here and in the SEC Championship game should propel Georgia into the Playoff. Our final game of the week is Nebraska and Wisconsin, not exactly two super teams this year. However, this game should decide the Big 10 West and the winner will face either Michigan State or Ohio State in the Championship game, looking to knock them out of Playoff contention (and maybe put Nebraska in).
Week 13:
1. #9 Kansas State @ #20 West Virginia
2. #12 Arizona @ #17 Utah
3. Louisville @ #10 Notre Dame
One of the last games before Championship weekend and Bowl season, it kind of lacks the hype of the norm Week 13. With only two games between ranked teams, and almost all of the top 10 teams matching up against teams far more inferior teams. Kansas State continues on their horrid stretch of games away from home, with game number 2 of 3 coming in Morgantown. We think that GameDay will probably head to either South Bend or Los Angeles (USC/UCLA) as this week is sort of a pre-nup for a huge Week 14.
Week 14:
1. #1 Mississippi State @ #4 Ole Miss
2. #3 Auburn @ #6 Alabama
3. #10 Notre Dame @ USC
This week will be fun. The Egg Bowl and the Iron Bowl are some of the most prolific match-ups this year, and perhaps the most prolific in their histories. The Egg Bowl has been being hyped ever since Auburn and Alabama went down back in Week 6. Played in Oxford, you could give the advantage to Ole Miss, but coming off the loss to LSU, Ole Miss is not longer undefeated. Mississippi State is. Ole Miss has Auburn coming up and Mississippi State having Alabama, which could have the Iron Bowl winner going into the SEC Championship Game. Again. Outside of those two games, the games sort of drop-off. We put Notre Dame/USC next due to their prolific rivalry.
Week 15:
1. SEC Championship Game
2. Big Ten Championship Game
3. #9 Kansas State @ #13 Baylor
Our top two Championship games are the SEC and Big 10, leaving out the Pac 12 and ACC. Yes, arguable, but I would take Michigan State/Nebraska and (Fill in your SEC West team)/Georgia over Oregon/Utah and Florida State/Duke any day. Last year, the SEC and Big 10 had huge Championship implications, with the entire Auburn/Ohio State controversy. This year could be the same, but instead the argument of a two-loss SEC team versus a one-loss Big 10 championship team. Kansas State/Baylor is the best Big 12 game, so we put that at #3.
Playoff Prediction:
Sugar Bowl: #1 Florida State vs #4 Michigan State
Rose Bowl: #2 Ole Miss vs #3 Oregon
New Year's Six:
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs Auburn
Fiesta Bowl: Auburn vs Baylor
Peach Bowl: East Carolina vs Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl: TCU vs Alabama
No comments:
Post a Comment