Monday, October 13, 2014

What if? - Looking Back at Potential College Football Playoff Scenarios

The BCS system dodged a bullet last year.

Ohio State was undefeated coming into the championship week. Auburn had one loss to LSU, one of the best teams in the country. Auburn had beaten four teams in the top 25 up to then, two of them in top 10. They were just coming off of a miracle win versus Alabama. Meanwhile, Ohio State benefited from playing lackluster opponents all year, and against stiff competition won unconvincingly. But Michigan State won the Big 10 championship and Auburn won the SEC, thus eliminating the controversy.

We're going to take a look at the past five years dating back to the 2009 season and act like the College Football Playoff existed. The bowl rotation will stay the same, with the Peach/Cotton coming in 2010 and 2013, the Orange/Fiesta in 2009 and 2012, and the Rose/Sugar in 2011. Let's go:

2009

Playoff #1 (Fiesta Bowl) - #1 Alabama vs #4 TCU
Playoff #2 (Orange Bowl) - #2 Texas vs #3 Cincinnati
Rose Bowl - #7 Oregon vs #8 Ohio State
Sugar Bowl - #5 Florida vs #19 Oklahoma State
Peach Bowl - #9 Georgia Tech vs #10 Iowa
Cotton Bowl - #6 Boise State vs  #12 LSU

Explanation - A year with 5 undefeated teams, this was hard. TCU was selected over Florida and Boise State for a tougher schedule. Oklahoma State was selected despite having three losses because they are the second best team from Big 12. LSU was chosen over Penn State and Virginia Tech for the Cotton Bowl because of the SEC's association with the Cotton Bowl.

2010

Playoff #1 (Cotton Bowl) - #1 Auburn vs #5 Wisconsin 
Playoff #2 (Peach Bowl) - #2 Oregon vs #3 TCU
Rose Bowl - #4 Stanford vs #6 Ohio State
Sugar Bowl - #7 Oklahoma vs #8 Arkansas
Orange Bowl - #13 Virginia Tech vs #9 Michigan State
Fiesta Bowl - #10 Boise State vs #11 LSU

Explination - Wisconsin gets the nod in the playoff over Stanford because of more wins versus ranked teams. LSU beats out Missouri and Oklahoma State because of their strength of schedule. Same goes for Michigan State beating out Missouri and LSU.

2011

Playoff #1 (Sugar Bowl) - #1 LSU vs #4 Stanford
Playoff #2 (Rose Bowl) - #2 Alabama vs #3 Oklahoma State
Orange Bowl - #6 Arkansas vs #11 Virginia Tech
Fiesta Bowl - #5 Oregon vs #7 Boise State
Cotton Bowl - #8 Kansas State vs #10 Wisconsin
Peach Bowl - #9 South Carolina vs #13 Michigan

Explination - Stanford gets the nod in the playoff over Oregon because they had less losses even though Oregon beat Stanford. Michigan gets in over Baylor because of their number of losses and reputation. 

2012

Playoff #1 (Orange Bowl) - #1 Notre Dame vs #4 Oregon
Playoff #2 (Fiesta Bowl) - #2 Alabama vs #3 Florida
Rose Bowl -  #6 Stanford vs Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - #5 Kansas State vs #8 LSU
Cotton Bowl - #9 Texas A&M vs #11 Oklahoma
Peach Bowl - #7 Georgia vs #12 Florida State

Explination - Oregon jumps into the playoffs over Kansas State because of a tougher schedule and a better loss. Wisconsin is in by necessity of a Big Ten team (Ohio State and Penn State barred from contention) and they were the Big Ten champion, slotting them in the Rose bowl. LSU gets into the Sugar Bowl due to a stronger schedule then other SEC teams and South Carolina is omitted due to lack of SOS.

2013

Playoff #1 (Peach Bowl) - #1 Florida State vs #4 Michigan State
Playoff #2 (Cotton Bowl) - #2 Auburn vs #3 Alabama
Rose Bowl - #5 Stanford vs #7 Ohio State
Sugar Bowl - #6 Baylor vs #9 South Carolina
Orange Bowl - #8 Missouri vs #12 Clemson
Fiesta Bowl - #11 Oklahoma vs #15 UCF

Explination - Michigan State is in the Playoff over Stanford due to less losses, and above Baylor because of SOS. South Carolina is in the Sugar Bowl over Missouri due to head-to-head record. Oklahoma is in over Oregon due to SOS and better losses. 

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