Eight games into the 2014 college football season, we are starting to get a good idea which teams are the class of each conference. With only three Power 5 teams left undefeated, the class of the entire FBS is uncertain though. Florida State, Mississippi State and Ole Miss have very legit cases for number one overall, and even teams like Alabama, Auburn and Oregon, one loss teams, could make small cases for it.
The SEC West and, well, the top half of the Big 12 seem to stack up to be the best divisions in college football right now. On the other hand, the Pac 12 North and ACC Coastal divisions definitely seem to be the weakest. Of course, it isn't as bad as some of the years the Big East put up, but isn't great. On the other hand, the SEC West seems to be one of the best divisions in history with four teams in the AP top 25.
Let's get it going. We are going to decide what teams from each conference have a chance to either a) get into the college playoff, b) win the conference, or c) get into a major bowl. Each team will be given a percent change of this happening, and a prediction. So here goes:
ACC:
Florida State: 85% of making playoff, 90% of winning division, 10% of making major bowl
Duke: 0% of making playoff, 4% of winning division, 20% of making major bowl
UVA: 0% of making playoff, 3% of winning division, 3% of making major bowl
Pittsburgh: 0% of making playoff, 3% of winning division, 3% of making major bowl
Clemson: 0% of making playoff, 0% of winning division, 35% of making major bowl
Louisville: 0% of making playoff, 0% of winning division, 15% of making major bowl
Georgia Tech: 0% of making playoff, 0% of winning division, 5% of making major bowl
Miami: 0% of making playoff, 0% of winning division, 2% of making major bowl
Virginia Tech: 0% of making playoff, 0% winning division, 2% of making major bowl
Really, there are only three scenarios here. Scenario 1: Florida State goes undefeated, wins conference, and random team gets into Orange Bowl. Scenario 2: Florida State loses a game or two, still wins conference, gets into Orange Bowl. The final scenario is Florida State loses in conference game, giving an auto-bid to Orange Bowl for non-Florida State team. Any way, this is probably the easiest division to pick.
Big 12:
TCU: 15% of making playoff, 40% of winning conference, 80% of making major bowl
Baylor: 10% of making playoff, 25% of winning conference, 60% of making major bowl
Kansas State: 10% of making playoff, 20% of winning conference, 30% of making major bowl
West Virginia: 0% of making playoff, 10% of winning conference, 10% of making major bowl
Oklahoma: 0% of making playoff, 5% of winning conference, 10% of making major bowl
If only this conference had a championship game. Tiebreakers are going to be the heart and soul of deciding who gets into perhaps the Cotton or Fiesta bowl. TCU probably has the best chance with Oklahoma and Baylor no longer on the schedule. Bryce Petty could easily lead Baylor to a one-loss season, which is however no likely. Kansas State is the final one of the powers, with only a loss to Auburn, but still has TCU and Baylor left on the schedule. Oklahoma drops significantly after two losses in three games. West Virginia is the wild card here, just jumping into the picture after a win versus Baylor. This is going to be a fun division.
Big 10:
MSU: 25% of making playoff, 60% of winning conference, 65% of making major bowl
Ohio State: 15% of making playoff, 36% of winning conference, 36% of making major bowl
Minnesota: 0% of making playoff, 2% of winning conference, 2% of making major bowl
Nebraska: 0% of making playoff, 2% of winning conference, 2% of making major bowl
Mark your calenders. November 8th at 8:00 PM in East Lansing, the Michigan State Spartans and the Ohio State Buckeyes take on each other for perhaps the Big Ten Championship, or even maybe a Playoff berth. There is a 99.99% chance that MSU or OSU will represent the East division. Out of the West, Minnesota and Nebraska are likely to come out, with Minnesota currently undefeated in conference play and Nebraska with only a loss to Michigan State will come out of the West. Either way, neither of those teams have much of a chance upsetting MSU or OSU.
Pac 12:
Oregon: 50% of making playoff, 60% of winning division, 45% of making major bowl
ASU: 5% of making playoff, 15% of winning division, 20% of making major bowl
Arizona: 5% of making playoff, 15% of winning division, 15% of making major bowl
USC: 0% of making playoff, 5% of winning division, 5% of making major bowl
Utah: 0% of making playoff, 5% of winning division, 5% of making major bowl
It is pretty clear here that Oregon is the class of the division. Gone are UCLA and Stanford from consideration, freeing up the path for Oregon to win the division. The Arizona's have a chance, with ASU getting a light advantage to make a major bowl game without winning the conference. Utah and USC both still have a chance, with USC still having Utah and Notre Dame left on the schedule. Right now, Oregon is looking like a playoff team, which would open up a spot in the Fiesta bowl for maybe Arizona State.
SEC:
Ole Miss: 65% of making playoff, 35% of winning division, 30% of making major bowl
Mississippi State: 45% of making playoff, 24% of winning division, 50% of making major bowl
Auburn: 25% of making playoff, 10% of winning division, 60% of major bowl
Alabama: 20% of making playoff, 11% of winning division, 65% of major bowl
Georgia: 15% of making playoff, 20% of winning division, 80% of major bowl
Oh my. It is very likely that four of these teams will make a major bowl. FOUR! Georgia probably should get in, being a one or two loss SEC team. Of Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Auburn and Alabama, one should get into the playoff and two get into a major bowl. One team will get left in the dust, and we right now have no idea which team that is going to be. Ole Miss and and Mississippi State should end up undefeated or with one loss, and that will be the team that gets into the playoff. There is a ton of football left, so this conference is still up in the air.
Independents/Group of 5:
Notre Dame: 10% of making playoff, 65% of making major bowl
Marshall: 0% of making playoff, 70% of making major bowl
East Carolina: 0% of making playoff, 30% of making major bowl
Looking here, we're pretty sure Notre Dame will make a major bowl, even if they lose one more game. With the necessity of a Group of Five team making a bowl, we have pretty much narrowed it down to Marshall and East Carolina, with Marshall the advantage here. However, if Marshall loses, East Carolina has the definite advantage with a much harder schedule.
If your team isn't one here, don't worry. We're only a bit over half way through this year. You never know; the currently one loss Duke Blue Devils could be playing on January 12th.
No comments:
Post a Comment